Umudike Journal of Engineering and Technology

Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike


MULTIMODEL BAYESIAN-BASED EVALUATION OF MODELS FOR RESILIENT MODULUS ESTIMATION

Nwonu, D. C.
Civil Engineering Department, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria

Ikeagwuani, C. C.
Civil Engineering Department, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria



ABSTRACT

Robustness in model selection is pertinent for obtaining parsimonious models, which is highly desirable in the field of science. A Bayesian-based assessment of resilient modulus stress-dependent models used in prediction of resilient modulus as level 2 input in mechanistic empirical pavement design was executed in this study. The assessment was done using the Bayes factor transformation approximation, known as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), which is a penalised model selection criterion. In order to ensure robustness and possibility of using multiple models, the results of the BIC analysis was interpreted in conjunction with the adjusted coefficient of determination to ensure higher confidence in the model selection process. The study was conducted using data from long-term pavement performance database for two subgrade soils, representing fine and coarse-grained soils. The results obtained indicated the existence of a single robust model for the coarse-grained soil and a confidence set of models for the fine-grained soil. The results of the study clearly indicated the relevance of adopting a robust multimodel selection approach.



Keywords: Bayesian information criterion; long-term pavement performance; resilient modulus; stress-dependent models; subgrade soil


View: 184 | Download: 1

Conference Code
IECON2019

Conference Title
ENGINEERING FOR SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION, FOOD AND NATIONAL SECURITY

ISBN
978-978-53175-8-9

Date Published
Friday, September 20, 2019

Conference Date
2nd - 4th September, 2019

The contents of the articles are the sole opinion of the author(s) and not of UJET.


Open Access
Umudike Journal of Engineering and Technology makes abstracts and full texts of all articles published freely available to everyone immediately after publication thereby enabling the accessibility of research articles by the global community without hindrance through the internet.

Indexing and Abstracting
We are index in Google Scholar